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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-27T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21376/-1
CME Note: Clearly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3; moves quickly through FOV. Associated with eruption and flare from AR 13088, clearly visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-08-27T01:55Z and in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-08-27T01. Arrival signature identified by LASSOS team/Tarik Salman: the shock is seen around 2022-08-29T02:57Z with a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The sheath following this IP shock ends on 2022-08-30T10:46Z, followed by the flux rope. The sheath exhibits enhanced magnetic field and plasma signatures. According to the CME Scoreboard, the arrival would likely be synonymous with CME: 2022-08-27T02:23Z which was expected to arrive on average (8 entries) around 2022-08-29T02:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T02:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T11:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note: 


 
Lead Time: 26.30 hour(s)
    
  
 

  
	Difference: -8.05 hour(s)
    
  
  


Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-08-28T00:39Z





        		
    

    

        
            




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